Thoughts on the Coronavirus, I’m looking at the Numbers

The way the media is portraying the Coronavirus, I am terrified for the future. At the same time I can’t help but think the media is not clearly explaining to the public what is at stake. I thought I would do a little research on the numbers and nature of the virus and outline a few ideas I had on the reality of this pandemic.

The United States has over 327 million people as of 2018. In our country there has been at least 2100 people that have been infected with COVID-19. I did the math and that is like .0006 percent of people. Of course scientists are saying more people are infected than we have the confirmed cases for. So obviously the percent of people with the virus is greater than what is being reported.

Consider in Ohio, the Director of the Department of Health Dr. Amy Acton said that she was guestimating that there are 100,000 people in the state with the virus. That would be roughly 1 percent of the population of Ohio.

Let us return back to my calculations with this guestimation to see how the numbers change. If there is over 327 million people in the United States, and we guestimate that 1 percent of that amount are infected, that would be roughly 3.3 million people.

So if 3.3 million people are infected with the virus, what does that mean for the everyday person terrified of either contracting it or being already infected? I think it means that a lot of people in the next couple of weeks are going to suddenly start to get sick. But maybe we don’t have to panic as much as the media is suggesting as long as we haven’t been to Wuhan, or have been in contact with someone who has been. Of course, it’s not that simple because of the nature of the virus and the reports of community infection.

From the New York Times, I read an article explaining how infectious COVID-19 is compared to the flu. The graphic simulation shows the coronavirus spreading from 5 patients into 368 people in the 5th cycle of infection. That is compared with 5 people to 45 people in the 5th cycle. This data is the scariest. My take away is if the United States doesn’t contain the virus, we will have a big problem.

I can only imagine how the confirmed cases will keep growing within the next couple of weeks. But with the United States’ containment efforts, hopefully we can stop the spread of the virus and limit the number of people infected. This next month will say a lot about what will happen next. My advice is stay inside, period.

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